Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Georgia State
4–4 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–17FinalWe had GAST 25 – KENN 32
Kennesaw State
2–6 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KENN 67%GAST won
KENN 67%GAST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KENN −9.5.KENN −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.2 · GAST covered by 21.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.5.55.5final 48 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GAST +9.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
GAST +9.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Cameran Brown16/23 · 253 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4381st pct
- Comp %
- 69.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Rickie Collins22/35 · 260 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1656th pct
- Comp %
- 62.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Stateoffense | Played like GAST +6.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKennesaw State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | 48.5%▲2.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▼3.2 | 27th |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.11 | 28th |
| 83rd | +0.43▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.32 | 17th |
| 57th | +0.09▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.04 | 43rd |
| 41st | 1▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | defenseGeorgia State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 41.1%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▼1.0 | 53rd |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.07 | 46th |
| 60th | +0.16▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.16 | 40th |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.37 | 69th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia StateGAST | Kennesaw StateKENN | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3378th | Own 227th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.0 pts94th | +0.3 pts56th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.471st | −7.429th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | −0.5 pts23rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. GAST +2.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +3.9, kicking +1.2, 4th downs +0.1. | +2.563rd | −2.537th |
Season so far
Georgia State4–4 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
Wat Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5L
at James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8L
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4Kennesaw State2–6 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
Lvs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5Lat Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3L
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5L
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5W
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is