Georgia Southern
3–4 · Ours #82Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–30Our projected score
Georgia State
4–4 · Ours #96Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.GAST 57%
GAST 57%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. GAST −2.8
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.2
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Turner HeltonSenior · 1 start this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.06
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Took over mid-game last game
Ayden PereiraSenior · 1 start this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.08
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Took over mid-game last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Georgia Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseGeorgia Southern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | +0.14 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 54th |
| 37th | 46.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.6% | 45th |
| 35th | +0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 53rd |
| 68th | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 60th |
| 14th | 15.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.2% | 63rd |
| Georgia Southernoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseGeorgia State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | +0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 112th |
| 57th | 44.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.8% | 50th |
| 64th | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 71st |
| 115th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.24 | 133rd |
| 81st | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 16.0% | 133rd |
Team stats
| Georgia StateGAST | Georgia SouthernGASO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +3.211th | −3.3132nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −5.9133rd | −0.584th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 53%56th | 52%60th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.6225th | 3.9277th |
| Time of possession | 32:0014th | 29:0062nd |
| Plays per game | 6755th | 6849th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −4 | −4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 11 | 13 – 9 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.9%48th | 15.0%44th |
Season so far
Georgia Southern3–4 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7W
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-game
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-gameGeorgia State4–4 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10Wvs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5Lat James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8L
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameLvs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is