Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Coastal Carolina
2–5 · Ours #117Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–34Our projected score
Georgia State
4–3 · Ours #82Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.GAST 75%
GAST 75%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.GAST −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.2 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −6.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.55.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 57.4 · opened 57.5
Our call · No call7+ points from the market: past that size our college numbers haven't held up, so no call on the spread.7+ points from the market
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Deuce BaileyFreshman · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0293rd
- Comp %
- 53.2
- TD
- 16
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 17
Ayden PereiraSenior · 1 start this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.08
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Took over mid-game last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Georgia Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseCoastal Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | +0.14 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.17 | 123rd |
| 36th | 46.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 47.5% | 131st |
| 34th | +0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.14 | 101st |
| 69th | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.18 | 124th |
| 15th | 15.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 15.3% | 130th |
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseGeorgia State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.13 | 112th |
| 104th | 40.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.8% | 50th |
| 91st | +0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 71st |
| 59th | +0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.24 | 135th |
| 53rd | 13.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 16.0% | 136th |
Team stats
| Georgia StateGAST | Coastal CarolinaCCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +3.65th | +1.926th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −5.9134th | −2.1106th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 53%57th | 46%93rd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.6228th | 3.46106th |
| Time of possession | 32:0015th | 28:3076th |
| Plays per game | 6756th | 6482nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −4 | +6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 11 | 10 – 16 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.9%50th | 13.2%87th |
Season so far
Coastal Carolina2–5 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5L
vs App State32–35missed +1.5
vs App State32–35missed +1.5Georgia State4–3 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5L
at James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8L
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is