Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Georgia State
4–4 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–49FinalWe had GAST 22 – JMU 33
James Madison
7–2 · Ours #37 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 75%JMU won
JMU 75%JMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JMU −11.5.JMU −8oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.8 · JMU covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.6.58final 71 · over by 13
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GAST +12Lbeat the close by 4.0
GAST +12Lbeat the close by 4.0Quarterbacksthis game
Cameran Brown13/25 · 134 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1427th pct
- Comp %
- 52.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Camden Coleman13/19 · 185 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3675th pct
- Comp %
- 68.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q1 by JC Evans
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Stateoffense | Played like JMU +16.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseJames Madison | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.6%▼0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.6%▼8.4 | 36th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.06 | 50th |
| 31st | −0.14▼0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.12 | 69th |
| 75th | +0.21▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.27 | 25th |
| 41st | 1▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.1 | 59th |
| James Madisonoffense | defenseGeorgia State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69th | 47.4%▲4.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.4%▼8.5 | 31st |
| 89th | +0.40▲0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.32 | 11th |
| 85th | +0.48▲0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.48▼0.54 | 15th |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.14 | 13th |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia StateGAST | James MadisonJMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2312th | Own 4399th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts62nd | −4.2 pts1st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.830th | +6.870th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts11th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. JMU +4.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +7.1, kicking −3.4, 4th downs +1.5, penalty first downs −3.1. | −4.729th | +4.771st |
Season so far
Georgia State4–4 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5Lat James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8L
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4James Madison7–2 · 114th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5Wat Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7Wvs Georgia State49–22covered −8
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8L
at App State31–34missed −12.5
at App State31–34missed −12.5L
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is