Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Georgia State
4–4 · Ours #80 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
32–38FinalWe had GAST 29 – ARST 28
Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #97 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GAST 53%ARST won
GAST 53%ARST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GAST −1.5.GAST −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1 · ARST covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.1.58.5final 70 · over by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARST +2.5Wmatched the close
ARST +2.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ayden Pereira12/19 · 163 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1151st pct
- Comp %
- 63.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Replaced Cameran Brown in Q2
Trey Owens21/32 · 309 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Stateoffense | Played like ARST +8.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArkansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▼1.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲1.6 | 38th |
| 41st | −0.01▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.17 | 59th |
| 26th | −0.18▼0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.44 | 74th |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.08 | 30th |
| 15th | 2▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| Arkansas Stateoffense | defenseGeorgia State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼6.3 | 37th |
| 67th | +0.17▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.05 | 33rd |
| 60th | +0.17▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.16 | 40th |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▲0.05 | 30th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia StateGAST | Arkansas StateARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2417th | Own 3168th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts20th | −3.7 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 6672nd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.555th | −1.545th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARST +6.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.6, kicking −1.8, 4th downs +0.4. | −6.422nd | +6.478th |
Season so far
Georgia State4–4 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5L
at James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8Lat Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19Wvs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3W
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5Wvs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is