Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Northern Illinois
0–7 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–35FinalWe had NIU 19 – GAST 37
Georgia State
4–4 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GAST 85%GAST won
GAST 85%GAST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GAST −9.GAST −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −17.5 · GAST covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.8.56.5final 49 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Taron Dickens28/42 · 320 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0647th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Cameran Brown14/21 · 148 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northern Illinoisoffense | Played like NIU +7.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▲10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▼1.7 | 50th |
| 75th | +0.23▲0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.12 | 25th |
| 51st | +0.06▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.04 | 49th |
| 97th | +0.57▲0.56 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.57▼0.42 | 3rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Georgia Stateoffense | defenseNorthern Illinois | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.1%▼5.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.1%▲14.7 | 48th |
| 48th | +0.04▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.33 | 52nd |
| 64th | +0.20▼0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.23 | 36th |
| 34th | −0.07▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.29 | 66th |
| 15th | 2▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Northern IllinoisNIU | Georgia StateGAST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3165th | Own 2845th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts7th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.733rd | +5.767th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts7th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NIU +9.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +1.0, kicking −1.6, 4th downs −1.7, penalty first downs +2.3, return touchdowns +4.2. | +9.487th | −9.413th |
Season so far
Northern Illinois0–7 · 68th-hardest schedule
L
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-game
at Iowa0–40missed +31QB change mid-gameLvs Illinois State24–28missed +2.5QB change mid-game
L
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5
at Arizona17–42covered +34.5Lat Georgia State14–35missed +10
at Georgia State14–35missed +10L
vs Air Force7–28missed +7
vs Air Force7–28missed +7L
at Wyoming23–41missed +7
at Wyoming23–41missed +7L
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3
vs Hawai'i21–56missed +3Georgia State4–4 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5Wvs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10W
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5L
at James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8L
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is