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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs CMU · Wed, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Eastern Michigan

4–5 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−9.8
Rank
114
Résumé
115
Projected wins
5.5▲ 0.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29Sacramento StateSACEMU +1.9EMU −9.5W 28–1757SAC · L
Fri, Sep 49/4San José StateSJSUEMU −0.8EMU −3.5L 21–2742SJSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Michigan StateMSUEMU +16.1EMU +17.5L 7–3527EMU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at WisconsinWISEMU +14.7EMU +24.5L 10–5413EMU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26LindenwoodLindenwoodEMU −27.4EMU −24.0W 29–372
Sat, Oct 310/3at MassachusettsMASSEMU +6.6EMU +6.5W 38–1466MASS · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at AkronAKREMU −7.3EMU −6.5W 25–2339EMU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17ToledoTOLEMU +8.2EMU +5.5L 14–3424TOL · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at OhioOHIOEMU +15.3EMU +11.0L 20–2438OHIO · L
Wed, Nov 411/4Central MichiganCMUEMU −2.5EMU −2.5wk 10
Tue, Nov 1711/17at Western MichiganWMUEMU +13.8—wk 12
Tue, Nov 2411/24Kent StateKENTEMU −8.2—wk 13

Model on EMU games: 2–6 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 1–3 · home 0–2, away 2–4 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 2 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.54–5 banked, 3 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)9%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 1.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.07128th
Success rate38.3%122nd
Pass EPA−0.13126th
Rush EPA+0.0298th
Explosive rate9.4%132nd
Quality-drive rate42.7%115th
Points per quality drive4.069th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0684th
Success allowed42.9%90th
Pass EPA allowed+0.16110th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0632nd
Explosive allowed13.9%114th
Havoc rate14.9%50th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.396th
Turnover margin−184th · exp. +0.5
Field position margin−2.9 yd116th
Hidden points / game+0.5banked
Luck, wins+0.04.0 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 5–4
Rush rate over expected−8.2%128th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−9.8114th
Schedule played−7.1125th
Schedule remaining−12.6135th
Full schedule−8.6133rd
Pregame expected wins3.0of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 114th · −9.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUEMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Eastern Michiganoff −0.07 128thdef +0.06 allowed · 84th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.