Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Toledo
6–2 · Ours #84 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–14FinalWe had TOL 30 – EMU 22
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #107 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TOL 70%TOL won
TOL 70%TOL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TOL −5.TOL −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.2 · TOL covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.5.53final 48 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TOL −5.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
TOL −5.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
John Alan Richter24/30 · 288 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5085th pct
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Noah Kim16/36 · 214 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0141st pct
- Comp %
- 44.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Toledooffense | Played like TOL +21.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseEastern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲7.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼5.4 | 22nd |
| 67th | +0.17▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.09 | 33rd |
| 86th | +0.50▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.28 | 14th |
| 32nd | −0.08▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.05 | 68th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| Eastern Michiganoffense | defenseToledo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 26.8%▼12.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.8%▲8.3 | 92nd |
| 14th | −0.21▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.25 | 86th |
| 26th | −0.19▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.32 | 74th |
| 13th | −0.26▼0.31 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.18 | 87th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| ToledoTOL | Eastern MichiganEMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3687th | Own 2630th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts72nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +20.692nd | −20.68th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts32nd | −2.1 pts1st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TOL +1.8: field position +3.5, kicking +0.6, 4th downs +2.4, penalty first downs −4.6. | +1.860th | −1.840th |
Season so far
Toledo6–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5W
at Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21L
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5Wat Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5W
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5Lat Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5W
at Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5Lvs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5L
at Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is