Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #110 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–35FinalWe had EMU 20 – MSU 36
Michigan State
2–6 · Ours #64 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MSU 83%MSU won
MSU 83%MSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MSU −17.5.MSU −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.1 · MSU covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.1.49.5final 42 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.EMU +17.5Lmatched the close
EMU +17.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Noah Kim16/26 · 118 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.409th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Alessio Milivojevic12/20 · 170 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4582nd pct
- Comp %
- 60.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q3 by Cam Fancher
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern Michiganoffense | Played like MSU +19.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMichigan State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.8%▲3.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.8%▲1.8 | 55th |
| 33rd | −0.06▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.14 | 67th |
| 13th | −0.38▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.59 | 87th |
| 87th | +0.33▲0.37 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.37 | 13th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
| Michigan Stateoffense | defenseEastern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 55.9%▲16.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.9%▼12.1 | 11th |
| 80th | +0.28▲0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.21 | 20th |
| 83rd | +0.43▲0.56 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.20 | 17th |
| 67th | +0.16▲0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.23 | 33rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern MichiganEMU | Michigan StateMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 203rd | Own 3583rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4929th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.217th | +12.283rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +1.1 pts95th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MSU +6.6: field position +5.1, 4th downs +1.5. | −6.621st | +6.679th |
Season so far
Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5Lat Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5W
at Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5L
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5L
at Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Michigan State2–6 · 16th-hardest schedule
Wvs Toledo30–20push −10
vs Toledo30–20push −10Wvs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5
vs Eastern Michigan35–7covered −17.5L
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29
at Notre Dame10–27covered +29L
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6
vs Nebraska13–31missed +6Lat Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5
at Wisconsin3–31missed +8.5L
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5
vs Illinois37–38covered +2.5L
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7
vs Northwestern21–24covered +7L
at UCLA10–28missed +16
at UCLA10–28missed +16Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is