Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio
6–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−1.3
Rank
76
Résumé
43
Projected wins
8.8▲ 2.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OHIO games: 2–3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +5.3 · closer than the market 1 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.86–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins23%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game72%
Win conference38%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1252nd
Success rate48.0%25th
Pass EPA+0.1063rd
Rush EPA+0.1438th
Explosive rate13.4%53rd
Quality-drive rate59.0%19th
Points per quality drive3.979th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0364th
Success allowed40.4%57th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0470th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0265th
Explosive allowed10.9%51st
Havoc rate14.7%61st
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.814th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+1.0 yd65th
Hidden points / game−1.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.15.9 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+5.9%15th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.376th
Schedule played−8.9135th
Schedule remaining−10.2127th
Full schedule−9.4136th
Pregame expected wins4.3of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 76th · −1.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Ohiooff +0.12 52nddef +0.03 allowed · 64th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Ohiooff +0.12 52nddef +0.03 allowed · 64th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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