Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio

6–2 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−1.3
Rank
76
Résumé
43
Projected wins
8.8▲ 2.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at NebraskaNEBOHIO +15.3OHIO +23.5L 21–4917OHIO · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Jacksonville StateJXSTOHIO PKOHIO −2.0W 29–2737JXST · Push
Sat, Sep 199/19at South AlabamaUSAOHIO +8.6OHIO +6.0L 36–4157USA · L
Sat, Sep 269/26StonehillStonehillOHIO −34.5OHIO −32.5W 35–785
Sat, Oct 310/3at Kent StateKENTOHIO −10.9OHIO −3.0W 13–1048OHIO · Push
Sat, Oct 1010/10Central MichiganCMUOHIO −12.2OHIO −3.5W 31–1480OHIO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Sacramento StateSACOHIO −15.7OHIO −14.5W 48–789OHIO · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24Eastern MichiganEMUOHIO −15.3OHIO −11.0W 24–2063OHIO · L
Tue, Nov 311/3at AkronAKROHIO −16.4OHIO −12.5wk 10
Tue, Nov 1011/10at Miami (OH)M-OHOHIO −4.3—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17Ball StateBALLOHIO −16.5—wk 12

Model on OHIO games: 2–3–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 0–1 · home 1–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +5.3 · closer than the market 1 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.86–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins23%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game72%
Win conference38%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1252nd
Success rate48.0%25th
Pass EPA+0.1063rd
Rush EPA+0.1438th
Explosive rate13.4%53rd
Quality-drive rate59.0%19th
Points per quality drive3.979th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0364th
Success allowed40.4%57th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0470th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0265th
Explosive allowed10.9%51st
Havoc rate14.7%61st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.814th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+1.0 yd65th
Hidden points / game−1.1gave up
Luck, wins+0.15.9 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+5.9%15th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.376th
Schedule played−8.9135th
Schedule remaining−10.2127th
Full schedule−9.4136th
Pregame expected wins4.3of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 76th · −1.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOHIOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ohiooff +0.12 52nddef +0.03 allowed · 64th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.