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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Massachusetts

4–4 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−10.4
Rank
118
Résumé
111
Projected wins
5.8▲ 3.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3at RutgersRUTGMASS +30.2MASS +29.5W 37–2168RUTG · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Sacred HeartSacred HeartMASS −31.7MASS −23.5W 37–1088
Sat, Sep 199/19StonehillStonehillMASS −29.0MASS −31.0W 36–1466
Sat, Sep 269/26at Sacramento StateSACMASS +8.0MASS −5.5W 35–675SAC · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Eastern MichiganEMUMASS −6.6MASS −6.5L 14–3834MASS · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Miami (OH)M-OHMASS +4.2MASS +2.5L 19–2058M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at BuffaloBUFMASS +3.6MASS +3.0L 18–2557BUF · W
Fri, Oct 2310/23at UConnCONNMASS +19.3MASS +15.5L 16–3530CONN · W
Wed, Nov 411/4Ball StateBALLMASS −2.0MASS −3.5wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11at ToledoTOLMASS +19.2—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18AkronAKRMASS −6.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Bowling GreenBGSUMASS +1.9—wk 13

Model on MASS games: 2–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–3 · as the dog 0–1 · home 2–3, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +4.6 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.0
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0683rd
Success rate40.8%96th
Pass EPA+0.0774th
Rush EPA+0.0586th
Explosive rate11.8%90th
Quality-drive rate51.2%69th
Points per quality drive4.072nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0531st
Success allowed38.6%37th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1714th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0684th
Explosive allowed9.8%21st
Havoc rate14.6%62nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.521st
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +3.5
Field position margin−1.3 yd93rd
Hidden points / game−2.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.94.9 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected+1.0%44th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−10.4118th
Schedule played−9.2137th
Schedule remaining−12.1133rd
Full schedule−10.4138th
Pregame expected wins1.7of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 118th · −10.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMASSgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Massachusettsoff +0.06 83rddef −0.05 allowed · 31st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.