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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Central Michigan

3–5 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−15.6
Rank
130
Résumé
108
Projected wins
5.1▼ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at New MexicoUNMCMU +8.2CMU +10.5L 7–3819CMU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12ColgateColgateCMU −31.9CMU −18.5W 13–1053
Sat, Sep 199/19WyomingWYOCMU −4.6CMU −1.5W 24–1070CMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at MiamiMIACMU +45.7CMU +42.0L 3–522MIA · W
Sat, Oct 310/3AkronAKRCMU −3.8CMU −6.5W 41–1792AKR · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at OhioOHIOCMU +12.2CMU +3.5L 14–3121OHIO · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Western MichiganWMUCMU +15.2CMU +7.0L 14–2141WMU · Push
Sat, Oct 2410/24Miami (OH)M-OHCMU +4.4CMU +2.5L 27–2854M-OH · L
Wed, Nov 411/4at Eastern MichiganEMUCMU +2.5CMU +2.5wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11Sacramento StateSACCMU −13.6—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18at BuffaloBUFCMU +3.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Ball StateBALLCMU +2.7—wk 13

Model on CMU games: 3–3–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 0–2 · home 3–0, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +4.5 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.13–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.6
Bowl (6+)8%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01109th
Success rate39.7%111th
Pass EPA−0.23138th
Rush EPA+0.1339th
Explosive rate7.3%137th
Quality-drive rate39.7%128th
Points per quality drive3.5102nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0678th
Success allowed46.2%124th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1219th
Rush EPA allowed+0.21131st
Explosive allowed11.9%79th
Havoc rate11.9%119th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.799th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd104th
Hidden points / game−2.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.53.5 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+10.7%7th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−15.6130th
Schedule played−1.983rd
Schedule remaining−14.0137th
Full schedule−6.3117th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 130th · −15.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Central Michiganoff −0.01 109thdef +0.06 allowed · 78th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.