Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #127 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–14FinalWe had EMU 23 – MASS 30
Massachusetts
4–4 · Ours #87 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MASS 66%EMU won
MASS 66%EMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MASS −4.MASS −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.6 · EMU covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.7.48.5final 52 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MASS −6.5Llost 1.0 to the close
MASS −6.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Noah Kim20/29 · 206 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4078th pct
- Comp %
- 69.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
William Watson III20/27 · 210 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2868th pct
- Comp %
- 74.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern Michiganoffense | Played like EMU +13.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMassachusetts | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90th | 56.6%▲21.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 56.6%▼16.9 | 10th |
| 86th | +0.35▲0.50 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.40 | 14th |
| 75th | +0.33▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.53 | 25th |
| 90th | +0.37▲0.42 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.31 | 10th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Massachusettsoffense | defenseEastern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▲4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲0.3 | 38th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.03 | 46th |
| 68th | +0.23▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.03 | 32nd |
| 25th | −0.14▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.11 | 75th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern MichiganEMU | MassachusettsMASS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3376th | Own 2523rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts55th | −1.5 pts16th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 4017th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +8.575th | −8.525th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 698th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | −0.5 pts22nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. EMU +14.4: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.8, kicking +1.3, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs +3.9. | +14.497th | −14.43rd |
Season so far
Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5L
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
Wat Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5W
at Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5L
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5L
at Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Massachusetts4–4 · 137th-hardest schedule
W
at Rutgers37–21covered +29
at Rutgers37–21covered +29Wvs Sacred Heart37–10covered −23.5
Wvs Stonehill36–14missed −31
Wat Sacramento State35–6covered −5
at Sacramento State35–6covered −5Lvs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5
vs Eastern Michigan14–38missed −5.5L
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5
vs Miami (OH)19–20covered +6.5L
at Buffalo18–25push +7
at Buffalo18–25push +7L
at UConn16–35missed +13
at UConn16–35missed +13Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is