Week 1 report · Fri, Sep 4 · 2026 Week 1
San José State
4–5 · Ours #115 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–21FinalWe had SJSU 28 – EMU 29
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #114 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.EMU 52%SJSU won
EMU 52%SJSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at EMU −3.5.EMU −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.8 · SJSU covered by 7.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.7.55final 48 · under by 7
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SJSU +3.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
SJSU +3.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Luke Weaver23/40 · 316 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1454th pct
- Comp %
- 57.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Noah Kim24/43 · 174 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3213th pct
- Comp %
- 55.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José Stateoffense | Played like SJSU +5.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseEastern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20th | 32.9%▼3.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.9%▲14.1 | 80th |
| 32nd | −0.07▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.19 | 68th |
| 54th | +0.11▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.17 | 46th |
| 12th | −0.28▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.27 | 88th |
| 15th | 2▼1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.3 | 85th |
| Eastern Michiganoffense | defenseSan José State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.4%▼9.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.4%▲15.8 | 88th |
| 14th | −0.20▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.23 | 86th |
| 16th | −0.32▼0.20 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.22 | 85th |
| 44th | 0.00▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.08 | 56th |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| San José StateSJSU | Eastern MichiganEMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3273rd | Own 2522nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.3 pts97th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 6876th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.371st | −7.329th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts32nd | −1.2 pts4th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. EMU +1.3: turnovers +2.6, field position −2.7, kicking −1.7, 4th downs −1.2, return touchdowns +4.2. | −1.344th | +1.356th |
Season so far
San José State4–5 · 99th-hardest schedule
L
at USC26–42covered +38.5
at USC26–42covered +38.5Wat Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5
at Eastern Michigan27–21covered +1.5Wvs Cal Poly30–20missed −21.5
L
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5
vs Fresno State10–26missed +4.5W
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3
at Hawai'i20–16covered +3L
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4
vs Wyoming13–16missed −4W
at UTEP24–11covered −7
at UTEP24–11covered −7L
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-game
at Nevada13–28missed +5.5QB change mid-gameL
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5
vs New Mexico16–21covered +14.5Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9Lvs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5L
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5W
at Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5L
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5L
at Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 4, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is