Board · Wed, Nov 4 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
Central Michigan
3–5 · Ours #130Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–25Our projected score
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #115Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.EMU 57%
EMU 57%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.EMU −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.5 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −1.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.46oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.2 · first seen 45.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.EMU −1.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.1% EV
EMU −1.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.1% EVThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Eastern Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseCentral Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 129th | −0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.06 | 79th |
| 123rd | 38.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.2% | 125th |
| 126th | −0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.12 | 18th |
| 100th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.21 | 129th |
| 132nd | 9.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.9% | 77th |
| Central Michiganoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseEastern Michigan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112th | −0.01 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.06 | 83rd |
| 110th | 39.7% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.9% | 89th |
| 138th | −0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.16 | 110th |
| 39th | +0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.06 | 31st |
| 137th | 7.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.9% | 114th |
Team stats
| Eastern MichiganEMU | Central MichiganCMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.396th | −0.799th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.9116th | −2.1105th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 43%115th | 40%128th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0270th | 3.55102nd |
| Time of possession | 27:4898th | 27:42101st |
| Plays per game | 6765th | 59129th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −1 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 12 | 12 – 14 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.9%49th | 11.9%121st |
Season so far
Central Michigan3–5 · 83rd-hardest schedule
L
at New Mexico7–38missed +11
at New Mexico7–38missed +11Wvs Colgate13–10missed −18.5
W
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1
vs Wyoming24–10covered +1L
at Miami3–52missed +41
at Miami3–52missed +41W
vs Akron41–17covered −7
vs Akron41–17covered −7L
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5
at Ohio14–31missed +2.5L
vs Western Michigan14–21covered +7.5
vs Western Michigan14–21covered +7.5L
vs Miami (OH)27–28covered +3.5
vs Miami (OH)27–28covered +3.5Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5L
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5Wat Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5L
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5Lat Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is