Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #119 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–24FinalWe had EMU 18 – OHIO 34
Ohio
6–2 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OHIO 82%OHIO won
OHIO 82%OHIO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OHIO −10.OHIO −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.3 · EMU covered by 6
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.0.49.5final 44 · under by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OHIO −11Llost 1.0 to the close
OHIO −11Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Brogan McCaughey27/39 · 197 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3611th pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Nick Poulos19/30 · 266 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3071st pct
- Comp %
- 63.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern Michiganoffense | Played like OHIO +13.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.3%▼3.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.3%▲7.3 | 77th |
| 8th | −0.30▼0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.35 | 92nd |
| 11th | −0.41▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.57 | 89th |
| 28th | −0.12▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.15 | 72nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Ohiooffense | defenseEastern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59th | 44.4%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.4%▲1.0 | 41st |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.18 | 67th |
| 53rd | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.19 | 47th |
| 11th | −0.29▼0.48 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.29 | 89th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern MichiganEMU | OhioOHIO | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2850th | Own 226th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.3 pts83rd | +1.2 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 5438th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.917th | +12.984th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts85th | −0.9 pts9th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 2100th | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. EMU +10.2: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.4, kicking +0.1, 4th downs +2.0, return touchdowns +8.3. | +10.290th | −10.210th |
Season so far
Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5L
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5W
at Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5L
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5Lat Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Ohio6–2 · 136th-hardest schedule
L
at Nebraska21–49missed +24
at Nebraska21–49missed +24W
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2
vs Jacksonville State29–27push −2L
at South Alabama36–41covered +7
at South Alabama36–41covered +7Wvs Stonehill35–7missed −32.5
W
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5
at Kent State13–10missed −3.5W
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5
vs Central Michigan31–14covered −2.5Wat Sacramento State48–7covered −17
at Sacramento State48–7covered −17Wvs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10
vs Eastern Michigan24–20missed −10Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is