Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Eastern Michigan
4–5 · Ours #104 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–23FinalWe had EMU 29 – AKR 22
Akron
1–7 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.EMU 68%EMU won
EMU 68%EMU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at EMU −5.5.EMU −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.3 · AKR covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.5.51final 48 · under by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.EMU −6.5Llost 1.0 to the close
EMU −6.5Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Noah Kim26/46 · 277 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1049th pct
- Comp %
- 56.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Brayden Roggow17/24 · 229 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4482nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern Michiganoffense | Played like AKR +7.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAkron | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.9%▲8.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.9%▲0.2 | 39th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.18 | 51st |
| 53rd | +0.10▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.04 | 47th |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.20 | 62nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 85th |
| Akronoffense | defenseEastern Michigan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 43.1%▲4.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.1%▲2.5 | 45th |
| 70th | +0.20▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.11 | 30th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.55 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.09 | 24th |
| 55th | +0.07▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.13 | 45th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Eastern MichiganEMU | AkronAKR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2956th | Own 2523rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.2 pts96th | −1.2 pts20th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7895th | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.535th | +4.565th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. EMU +1.5: turnovers −5.2, field position +1.6, kicking +2.4, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs +2.3. | +1.557th | −1.543rd |
Season so far
Eastern Michigan4–5 · 125th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9
vs Sacramento State28–17covered −9L
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5
vs San José State21–27missed −1.5L
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5
at Michigan State7–35missed +17.5L
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5
at Wisconsin10–54missed +23.5Wvs Lindenwood29–3covered −24
W
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5
at Massachusetts38–14covered +5.5Wat Akron25–23missed −5.5
at Akron25–23missed −5.5L
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5
vs Toledo14–34missed +7.5L
at Ohio20–24covered +10
at Ohio20–24covered +10Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
L
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7Lvs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5L
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5L
at Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is