Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Western Michigan

6–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−3.3
Rank
85
Résumé
66
Projected wins
8.3▲ 1.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at MichiganMICHWMU +21.9WMU +27.5L 12–1330WMU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12MonmouthMonmouthWMU −30.1WMU −29.5W 49–1473
Sat, Sep 199/19at RiceRICEWMU −11.5WMU −10.5W 28–2154RICE · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Boise StateBOISWMU −2.5WMU +8.0L 7–3217WMU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at BuffaloBUFWMU −15.3WMU −13.5W 20–1759WMU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Kent StateKENTWMU −18.6WMU −13.5W 38–763WMU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Central MichiganCMUWMU −15.2WMU −7.0W 21–1460WMU · Push
Sat, Oct 2410/24at ToledoTOLWMU +2.2WMU +3.5L 38–4544WMU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Bowling GreenBGSUWMU −17.9WMU −14.0W 23–10—WMU · L
Tue, Nov 1011/10at AkronAKRWMU −17.7—wk 11

Model on WMU games: 3–4–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–2, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +4.5 · closer than the market 2 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.36–3 banked, 3 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)97%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game46%
Win conference22%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0489th
Success rate41.6%83rd
Pass EPA−0.04112th
Rush EPA+0.1049th
Explosive rate10.4%120th
Quality-drive rate46.3%95th
Points per quality drive4.444th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0681st
Success allowed43.4%95th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0984th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0367th
Explosive allowed9.8%23rd
Havoc rate12.7%97th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.28th
Turnover margin+89th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin+1.4 yd59th
Hidden points / game+1.6banked
Luck, wins+0.25.8 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 5–4
Rush rate over expected+6.4%14th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.385th
Schedule played−6.6123rd
Schedule remaining−11.9132nd
Full schedule−8.0129th
Pregame expected wins5.0of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 85th · −3.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Western Michiganoff +0.04 89thdef +0.06 allowed · 81st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.