Kent State
3–6 · Ours #133Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–28Our projected score
Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #126Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.BGSU 61%
BGSU 61%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. BGSU −4.4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 50.9
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Dru DeShieldsJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.09118th
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Jay KastantinJunior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1456th
- Comp %
- 67.2
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Bowling Greenoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseKent State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116th | −0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.01 | 58th |
| 94th | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 43.6% | 98th |
| 54th | +0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 59th |
| 137th | −0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 61st |
| 130th | 9.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.5% | 70th |
| Kent Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseBowling Green | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130th | −0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 102nd |
| 136th | 34.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.3% | 126th |
| 118th | −0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 57th |
| 125th | −0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.19 | 126th |
| 127th | 9.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.9% | 93rd |
Team stats
| Bowling GreenBGSU | Kent StateKENT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.291st | −3.6134th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.7114th | −0.482nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 44%107th | 51%67th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.44106th | 2.07138th |
| Time of possession | 30:1238th | 29:0661st |
| Plays per game | 58135th | 62107th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | −12 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 12 | 22 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.4%83rd | 13.6%77th |
Season so far
Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
L
at Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3L
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5Lvs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5Wvs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9Lvs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5L
at Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3Lat Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is