Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami (OH)

5–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−5.7
Rank
97
Résumé
71
Projected wins
7.1▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at PittsburghPITTM-OH +15.8M-OH +16.5L 14–5913M-OH · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Holy CrossHoly CrossM-OH −31.6M-OH −30.5W 45–798
Sat, Sep 199/19at CincinnatiCINM-OH +19.1M-OH +14.5L 31–3530CIN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26UConnCONNM-OH +4.8M-OH −5.5W 24–2153CONN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Bowling GreenBGSUM-OH −19.8M-OH −13.0L 20–2439M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MassachusettsMASSM-OH −4.2M-OH −2.5W 20–1943M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17AkronAKRM-OH −13.5M-OH −10.0W 34–1465M-OH · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Central MichiganCMUM-OH −4.4M-OH −2.5W 28–2746M-OH · L
Tue, Nov 311/3BuffaloBUFM-OH −8.6M-OH −6.5wk 10
Tue, Nov 1011/10OhioOHIOM-OH +4.3—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17at Kent StateKENTM-OH −8.0—wk 12

Model on M-OH games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–4 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–2, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.15–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.5
Bowl (6+)72%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game13%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0395th
Success rate40.8%97th
Pass EPA−0.01104th
Rush EPA+0.0772nd
Explosive rate14.9%24th
Quality-drive rate53.7%53rd
Points per quality drive3.792nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0889th
Success allowed41.5%71st
Pass EPA allowed+0.16107th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0342nd
Explosive allowed8.8%12th
Havoc rate13.1%87th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.025th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+7.6 yd7th
Hidden points / game+1.4banked
Luck, wins+1.04.0 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+0.1%50th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.797th
Schedule played−7.4127th
Schedule remaining−8.4119th
Full schedule−7.8126th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 97th · −5.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghNebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUM-OHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Miami (OH)off +0.03 95thdef +0.08 allowed · 89th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.