Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Miami (OH)
5–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−5.7
Rank
97
Résumé
71
Projected wins
7.1▲ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on M-OH games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–4 · as the dog 1–1 · home 1–2, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.15–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.5
Bowl (6+)72%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.1 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game13%
Win conference6%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0395th
Success rate40.8%97th
Pass EPA−0.01104th
Rush EPA+0.0772nd
Explosive rate14.9%24th
Quality-drive rate53.7%53rd
Points per quality drive3.792nd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0889th
Success allowed41.5%71st
Pass EPA allowed+0.16107th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0342nd
Explosive allowed8.8%12th
Havoc rate13.1%87th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.025th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.5
Field position margin+7.6 yd7th
Hidden points / game+1.4banked
Luck, wins+1.04.0 earned
One-score record3–2flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+0.1%50th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.797th
Schedule played−7.4127th
Schedule remaining−8.4119th
Full schedule−7.8126th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 97th · −5.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Miami (OH)off +0.03 95thdef +0.08 allowed · 89th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Miami (OH)off +0.03 95thdef +0.08 allowed · 89th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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