Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #126Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–37Our projected score
Toledo
6–2 · Ours #73Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TOL 88%
TOL 88%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. TOL −19.4
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.0
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jay KastantinJunior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1456th
- Comp %
- 67.2
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Toledo
No passer on record this season
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Toledooffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseBowling Green | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 102nd |
| 46th | 45.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.3% | 126th |
| 14th | +0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.01 | 57th |
| 83rd | +0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.19 | 126th |
| 27th | 14.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.9% | 93rd |
| Bowling Greenoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseToledo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 116th | −0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.02 | 38th |
| 94th | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 33.9% | 6th |
| 54th | +0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.02 | 64th |
| 137th | −0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 23rd |
| 130th | 9.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 9.0% | 12th |
Team stats
| ToledoTOL | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −2.7124th | −0.291st |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.046th | −2.7114th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 58%28th | 44%107th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0669th | 3.44106th |
| Time of possession | 28:3079th | 30:1238th |
| Plays per game | 7117th | 58135th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +5 | 0 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 15 | 12 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.6%63rd | 13.4%83rd |
Season so far
Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5W
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9L
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5L
at Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3L
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Toledo6–2 · 129th-hardest schedule
L
at Michigan State20–30push +10
at Michigan State20–30push +10Wvs Central Connecticut63–10covered −36
W
vs Temple49–48missed −5
vs Temple49–48missed −5W
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5
vs San Diego State41–16covered −2.5Wat Ball State39–24missed −21
at Ball State39–24missed −21Lvs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5
vs Buffalo8–23missed −18.5W
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5
at Eastern Michigan34–14covered −7.5Wvs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5
vs Western Michigan45–38covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is