Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Ball State
3–5 · Ours #131 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
32–31FinalWe had BALL 21 – BGSU 28
Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BGSU 66%BALL won
BGSU 66%BALL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BGSU −7.5.BGSU −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.8 · BALL covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.4.46.5final 63 · over by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BALL +7.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
BALL +7.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Keldric Luster16/24 · 195 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5186th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Jay Kastantin17/24 · 215 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2262nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball Stateoffense | Played like BALL +9.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBowling Green | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | 55.2%▲19.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.2%▼8.1 | 12th |
| 76th | +0.24▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.24▼0.11 | 24th |
| 87th | +0.51▲0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.51▼0.68 | 13th |
| 53rd | +0.06▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.23 | 47th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Bowling Greenoffense | defenseBall State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.5%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.5%▲4.6 | 51st |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.15 | 46th |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▲0.16 | 35th |
| 33rd | −0.08▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.12 | 67th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball StateBALL | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2629th | Own 3481st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts70th | +1.3 pts82nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +12.783rd | −12.717th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BGSU +5.3: turnovers −2.6, field position +3.0, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −5.326th | +5.374th |
Season so far
Ball State3–5 · 78th-hardest schedule
L
at Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35Wat Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5W
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5Wvs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9Lvs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5L
at Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3L
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is