Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #129 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–31FinalWe had BGSU 22 – BUF 27
Buffalo
5–3 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BUF 62%BUF won
BUF 62%BUF wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BUF −4.BUF −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.1 · BUF covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.5.44.5final 55 · over by 10.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BUF −4.5Wlost 1.5 to the close
BUF −4.5Wlost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jay Kastantin19/27 · 217 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2364th pct
- Comp %
- 70.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jason Wright13/21 · 127 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0141st pct
- Comp %
- 61.9
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling Greenoffense | Played like BUF +4.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBuffalo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 46.0%▲8.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.0%▼3.4 | 35th |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.07 | 50th |
| 68th | +0.23▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.07 | 33rd |
| 29th | −0.10▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.18 | 71st |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.8 | 85th |
| Buffalooffense | defenseBowling Green | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48th | 41.3%▲11.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.3%▲8.2 | 52nd |
| 65th | +0.15▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.02 | 36th |
| 45th | +0.01▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.10 | 55th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▲0.03 | 23rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling GreenBGSU | BuffaloBUF | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2950th | Own 3996th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts54th | −1.5 pts15th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.457th | −2.443rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BUF +4.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.7, kicking −1.3, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +0.8. | −4.828th | +4.872nd |
Season so far
Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5W
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9L
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5Lat Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3L
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Buffalo5–3 · 105th-hardest schedule
Wvs UAlbany21–17missed −18.5
L
at Florida International20–33missed +10
at Florida International20–33missed +10L
at Penn State13–55missed +40
at Penn State13–55missed +40Wvs Robert Morris31–28missed −28
Lvs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5
vs Western Michigan17–20covered +12.5W
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5
at Toledo23–8covered +18.5W
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7
vs Massachusetts25–18push −7Wvs Bowling Green31–24covered −3
vs Bowling Green31–24covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is