Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Sacramento State
2–7 · Ours #135 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–38FinalWe had SAC 20 – BGSU 23
Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #129 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BGSU 58%BGSU won
BGSU 58%BGSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BGSU −7.BGSU −9oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.1 · BGSU covered by 19
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 42.6.43.5final 48 · over by 4.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.SAC +7Llost 2.0 to the close
SAC +7Llost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jackson Sharman13/28 · 145 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2021st pct
- Comp %
- 46.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Jay Kastantin12/16 · 98 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1923rd pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sacramento Stateoffense | Played like BGSU +15.8Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBowling Green | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38th | 38.6%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.6%▲11.3 | 62nd |
| 13th | −0.22 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.42 | 87th |
| 5th | −0.59▼0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.59▲0.61 | 95th |
| 58th | +0.10▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.19 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Bowling Greenoffense | defenseSacramento State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68th | 46.8%▲9.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.8%▼4.9 | 33rd |
| 55th | +0.08▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.08 | 45th |
| 25th | −0.19▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.38 | 75th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.46 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.22 | 23rd |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sacramento StateSAC | Bowling GreenBGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2526th | Own 3378th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts17th | +0.5 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4422nd | 4727th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.920th | +10.980th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts59th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BGSU +8.1: field position +2.9, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −0.1, penalty first downs +3.9. | −8.116th | +8.184th |
Season so far
Sacramento State2–7 · 131st-hardest schedule
L
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9
at Eastern Michigan17–28missed +9Wvs Mississippi Valley State52–0covered −38.5
L
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5
at Fresno State3–49missed +17.5L
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25
vs North Dakota State10–31covered +25L
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5
vs Massachusetts6–35missed +5Lat Bowling Green10–38missed +9
at Bowling Green10–38missed +9L
vs Ohio7–48missed +17
vs Ohio7–48missed +17L
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5
at Ball State17–34missed +14.5W
vs Kent State31–10covered +7
vs Kent State31–10covered +7Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5Wvs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9Lvs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5L
at Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3L
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is