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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Buffalo

5–3 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−9.9
Rank
116
Résumé
75
Projected wins
7.0▲ 2.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3UAlbanyUAlbanyBUF −25.4BUF −18.5W 21–1754
Sat, Sep 129/12at Florida InternationalFIUBUF +12.9BUF +10.5L 20–3340FIU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Penn StatePSUBUF +38.1BUF +39.5L 13–5513BUF · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Robert MorrisRobert MorrisBUF −26.1BUF −28.0W 31–2849
Sat, Oct 310/3Western MichiganWMUBUF +15.3BUF +13.5L 17–2042WMU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at ToledoTOLBUF +23.4BUF +19.5W 23–840TOL · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17MassachusettsMASSBUF −3.6BUF −3.0W 25–1844BUF · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24Bowling GreenBGSUBUF −5.1BUF −4.5W 31–2457BUF · W
Tue, Nov 311/3at Miami (OH)M-OHBUF +8.6BUF +6.5wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11at Ball StateBALLBUF +1.0—wk 11
Wed, Nov 1811/18Central MichiganCMUBUF −3.8—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at AkronAKRBUF −3.5—wk 13

Model on BUF games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–2 · as the dog 0–1 · home 3–1, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.05–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)30%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game6%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.04120th
Success rate35.7%133rd
Pass EPA−0.13127th
Rush EPA+0.0488th
Explosive rate9.0%134th
Quality-drive rate41.8%122nd
Points per quality drive3.794th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0574th
Success allowed39.1%42nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.1087th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0155th
Explosive allowed11.3%66th
Havoc rate12.6%100th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.56th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+1.5 yd56th
Hidden points / game+2.4banked
Luck, wins+0.94.1 earned
One-score record4–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected+4.2%27th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−9.9116th
Schedule played−4.6103rd
Schedule remaining−13.8136th
Full schedule−8.3131st
Pregame expected wins3.4of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 116th · −9.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBUFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Buffalooff −0.04 120thdef +0.05 allowed · 74th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.