Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #136 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–20FinalWe had BGSU 14 – M-OH 33
Miami (OH)
5–3 · Ours #75 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.M-OH 88%BGSU won
M-OH 88%BGSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at M-OH −15.M-OH −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.8 · BGSU covered by 14.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.1.41.5final 44 · over by 2.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Jay Kastantin25/37 · 305 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3272nd pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Caleb Heavner17/24 · 198 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling Greenoffense | Played like BGSU +9.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiami (OH) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.5%▲15.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.5%▼11.6 | 16th |
| 65th | +0.16▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.05 | 35th |
| 80th | +0.38▲0.52 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.21 | 20th |
| 19th | −0.21▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.24 | 82nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Miami (OH)offense | defenseBowling Green | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.3%▼0.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲12.8 | 67th |
| 42nd | 0.00▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.16 | 58th |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.11 | 53rd |
| 41st | −0.02▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.33 | 59th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling GreenBGSU | Miami (OH)M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 191st | Own 3790th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.9 pts24th | +2.1 pts95th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +9.777th | −9.723rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 698th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. M-OH +10.3: field position +6.3, kicking +2.1, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | −10.310th | +10.390th |
Season so far
Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5L
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5Wat Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5W
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9L
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5L
at Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3L
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Miami (OH)5–3 · 130th-hardest schedule
L
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5
at Pittsburgh14–59missed +16.5Wvs Holy Cross45–7covered −30.5
L
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5
at Cincinnati31–35covered +14.5W
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5
vs UConn24–21covered −2.5Lvs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5
vs Bowling Green20–24missed −10.5W
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5
at Massachusetts20–19missed −6.5W
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5
vs Akron34–14covered −9.5W
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5
at Central Michigan28–27missed −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is