Week 7 report · Fri, Oct 16 · 2026 Week 7
App State
5–2 · Ours #105 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–32FinalWe had APP 27 – CCU 24
Coastal Carolina
3–5 · Ours #110 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.APP 59%APP won
APP 59%APP wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at APP −1.5.APP −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.4 · APP covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.3.48.5final 67 · over by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.APP −1Wbeat the close by 0.5
APP −1Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Malachi Singleton12/14 · 151 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5688th pct
- Comp %
- 85.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q1 by 5146664
Deuce Bailey16/31 · 298 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3977th pct
- Comp %
- 51.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App Stateoffense | Played like APP +5.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseCoastal Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲16.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼5.5 | 16th |
| 90th | +0.40▲0.46 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.27 | 11th |
| 90th | +0.59▲0.53 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.59▼0.41 | 10th |
| 83rd | +0.29▲0.51 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.16 | 17th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | defenseApp State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 50.8%▲14.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.8%▼10.0 | 21st |
| 76th | +0.25▲0.26 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.25 | 24th |
| 80th | +0.39▲0.50 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.45 | 20th |
| 59th | +0.10▲0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.10▼0.07 | 41st |
| 41st | 1▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App StateAPP | Coastal CarolinaCCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 2314th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts8th | +1.9 pts93rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.157th | −2.143rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. APP 0.0: field position +1.6, kicking −3.0, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | 0.050th | 0.050th |
Season so far
App State5–2 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
W
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13L
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5Wat Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5W
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5Coastal Carolina3–5 · 90th-hardest schedule
L
at West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5Lvs App State32–35missed +1.5
vs App State32–35missed +1.5W
at Georgia State31–20covered +4
at Georgia State31–20covered +4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 16, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is