Week 8 report · Thu, Oct 22 · 2026 Week 8
James Madison
7–2 · Ours #32 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–34FinalWe had JMU 34 – APP 20
App State
5–2 · Ours #103 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.JMU 81%APP won
JMU 81%APP wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at JMU −10.5.JMU −12.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −14.5 · APP covered by 15.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.8.56.5final 65 · over by 8.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.JMU −11Lbeat the close by 1.5
JMU −11Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Camden Coleman22/39 · 232 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1228th pct
- Comp %
- 56.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Malachi Singleton25/39 · 266 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1758th pct
- Comp %
- 64.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| James Madisonoffense | Played like APP +2.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseApp State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43rd | 40.3%▼3.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲2.6 | 57th |
| 42nd | 0.00▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.04 | 58th |
| 46th | +0.02▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.01 | 54th |
| 41st | −0.03▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.09 | 60th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.6 | 59th |
| App Stateoffense | defenseJames Madison | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.1%▲2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▼3.2 | 53rd |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.05 | 52nd |
| 64th | +0.20▲0.06 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.26 | 36th |
| 14th | −0.24▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.25 | 86th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| James MadisonJMU | App StateAPP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3687th | Own 2951st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.0 pts76th | +2.1 pts95th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7285th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | 0.050th | 0.050th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.1 pts94th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. APP +1.0: turnovers +2.6, field position −2.5, kicking +0.7, 4th downs −1.4, penalty first downs +1.5. | −1.045th | +1.055th |
Season so far
James Madison7–2 · 114th-hardest schedule
W
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5
vs Liberty20–13covered −6.5Wvs Wagner87–3covered −46
W
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5
at San Diego State26–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5
at Old Dominion46–20covered −6.5W
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5
vs Marshall45–17covered −15.5W
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7
at Georgia Southern27–24missed −7W
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8
vs Georgia State49–22covered −8Lat App State31–34missed −12.5
at App State31–34missed −12.5L
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5
vs Troy21–24missed −19.5App State5–2 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
W
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13Lvs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5W
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5Wvs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 22, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is