Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 6:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
App State
5–2 · Ours #95Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–28Our projected score
Georgia Southern
3–4 · Ours #83Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.GASO 57%
GASO 57%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.GASO −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.8 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.55.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.5 · opened 54.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.APP +5.5+100 FanDuel50% to cover · +0.1% EV
APP +5.5+100 FanDuel50% to cover · +0.1% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Malachi Singleton6 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2237th
- Comp %
- 66.3
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Turner HeltonSenior · 1 start this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.06
- Comp %
- 73.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Took over mid-game last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Georgia Southernoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseApp State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | +0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.01 | 55th |
| 56th | 44.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.5% | 72nd |
| 67th | +0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 48th |
| 115th | −0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.03 | 68th |
| 82nd | 12.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.8% | 41st |
| App Stateoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseGeorgia Southern | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | +0.09 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 50th |
| 82nd | 41.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.6% | 46th |
| 36th | +0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 51st |
| 120th | −0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 59th |
| 20th | 15.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.2% | 64th |
Team stats
| Georgia SouthernGASO | App StateAPP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −3.3130th | +0.274th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −0.584th | +3.434th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 52%62nd | 55%43rd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9277th | 3.9673rd |
| Time of possession | 29:0064th | 29:4847th |
| Plays per game | 6853rd | 6938th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −4 | +8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 13 – 9 | 8 – 16 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.0%45th | 14.7%57th |
Season so far
App State5–2 · 127th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
W
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13L
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5W
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5W
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5Georgia Southern3–4 · 79th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5Wat Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2Lvs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7Wat Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-game
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is