Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Charlotte
1–7 · Ours #133 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–26FinalWe had CLT 20 – APP 36
App State
5–2 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.APP 83%APP won
APP 83%APP wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at APP −19.5.APP −17.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.4 · CLT covered by 12.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.7.53final 47 · under by 6
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CLT +19Wbeat the close by 1.5
CLT +19Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Cole Gonzales21/34 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1427th pct
- Comp %
- 61.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Malachi Singleton28/41 · 331 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4380th pct
- Comp %
- 68.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Charlotteoffense | Played like APP +10.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseApp State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.5%▼5.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.5%▲14.3 | 85th |
| 22nd | −0.14▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.21 | 78th |
| 30th | −0.14▼0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.18 | 70th |
| 25th | −0.14▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.22 | 75th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
| App Stateoffense | defenseCharlotte | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.8%▲1.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.8%▲12.9 | 55th |
| 44th | +0.01▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▲0.30 | 56th |
| 70th | +0.26▲0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.26▲0.07 | 30th |
| 9th | −0.32▼0.22 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.61 | 91st |
| 41st | 1▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CharlotteCLT | App StateAPP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2636th | Own 3792nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +2.0 pts94th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5951st | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −14.914th | +14.986th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts31st | −0.4 pts26th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. APP +1.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.8, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −0.1, penalty first downs −2.3, return touchdowns −4.2. | −1.244th | +1.256th |
Season so far
Charlotte1–7 · 64th-hardest schedule
Lvs The Citadel41–43missed −20.5
L
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45
at Ole Miss9–41covered +45Lat App State21–26covered +17.5
at App State21–26covered +17.5L
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5
vs Louisiana7–34missed +9.5L
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5
vs Memphis8–59missed +20.5L
at North Texas10–50missed +28
at North Texas10–50missed +28W
at Temple38–31covered +17.5
at Temple38–31covered +17.5L
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5
vs Tulane31–38covered +8.5App State5–2 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
W
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5Wvs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13L
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5W
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5W
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is