Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
App State
5–2 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had APP 23 – ECU 32
East Carolina
4–4 · Ours #78 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ECU 73%APP won
ECU 73%APP wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ECU −9.5.ECU −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.8 · APP covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.2.56final 51 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ECU −9Llost 2.5 to the close
ECU −9Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Malachi Singleton20/28 · 267 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3171st pct
- Comp %
- 71.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Mitch Griffis21/38 · 230 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0436th pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App Stateoffense | Played like ECU +9.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseEast Carolina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.6%▼3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.6%▲1.9 | 69th |
| 43rd | +0.01▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.06 | 58th |
| 74th | +0.31▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.51 | 26th |
| 17th | −0.21▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.23 | 83rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.0 | 21st |
| East Carolinaoffense | defenseApp State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | 47.9%▲13.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 47.9%▼6.6 | 29th |
| 61st | +0.12▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.10 | 39th |
| 41st | −0.04▲0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.06 | 60th |
| 85th | +0.31▲0.44 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.32 | 15th |
| 15th | 2▼1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App StateAPP | East CarolinaECU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3689th | Own 2312th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts86th | −1.9 pts12th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7183rd | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.424th | +9.476th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.7 pts86th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. APP +13.0: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.7, kicking +2.4, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +1.5. | +13.096th | −13.04th |
Season so far
App State5–2 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
Wat East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13L
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5W
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5W
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5East Carolina4–4 · 96th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28Lvs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5Wat Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10L
at UAB17–30missed −4.5
at UAB17–30missed −4.5L
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-game
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Temple17–9covered −4
vs Temple17–9covered −4Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is