Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
App State
5–2 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–41FinalWe had APP 18 – NCSU 38
NC State
4–4 · Ours #71 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.NCSU 88%NCSU won
NCSU 88%NCSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NCSU −13.5.NCSU −13oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.1 · APP covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.7.56final 72 · over by 16
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App Stateoffense | Played like NCSU +4.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseNC State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.7%▼1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.7%▲10.8 | 65th |
| 67th | +0.17▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.14 | 34th |
| 76th | +0.33▲0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▲0.05 | 24th |
| 25th | −0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.46 | 75th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| NC Stateoffense | defenseApp State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81st | 51.3%▲11.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.3%▼10.6 | 19th |
| 66th | +0.17▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.16 | 34th |
| 61st | +0.18▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.20 | 39th |
| 67th | +0.16▲0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.14 | 33rd |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| App StateAPP | NC StateNCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2738th | Own 3274th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.8 pts24th | +0.8 pts72nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6158th | 7895th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −9.923rd | +9.977th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts6th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. NCSU +1.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +2.0, kicking +1.2, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs −0.8. | −1.543rd | +1.558th |
Season so far
App State5–2 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
W
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5Lat NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13L
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5W
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5W
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5NC State4–4 · 67th-hardest schedule
L
at Virginia8–34missed +4
at Virginia8–34missed +4Wvs Richmond73–0covered −33.5
L
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3
at Vanderbilt31–35missed +3Wvs App State41–31missed −13
vs App State41–31missed −13W
vs Louisville31–28covered +5
vs Louisville31–28covered +5L
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5
vs Wake Forest14–38missed +3.5L
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5
at Stanford28–31missed −7.5W
vs California31–10covered −9.5
vs California31–10covered −9.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is