Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Wisconsin
5–3 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–17FinalWe had WIS 21 – UCLA 26
AP #12UCLA
7–0 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UCLA 61%UCLA won
UCLA 61%UCLA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UCLA −3.UCLA −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.3 · UCLA covered by 8.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 47.2.43final 24 · under by 19
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UCLA −3.5Wlost 2.0 to the close
UCLA −3.5Wlost 2.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Colton Joseph5/15 · 60 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 33.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Ty Dieffenbach22/33 · 264 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3776th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wisconsinoffense | Played like UCLA +5.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUCLA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.3%▼1.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.3%▼5.6 | 63rd |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.14 | 67th |
| 8th | −0.49▼0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.49▲0.22 | 93rd |
| 74th | +0.21▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.36 | 26th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼2.8 | 21st |
| UCLAoffense | defenseWisconsin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.8%▼6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.8%▼4.5 | 55th |
| 47th | +0.03▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.18 | 53rd |
| 73rd | +0.30▲0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.52 | 27th |
| 16th | −0.23▼0.52 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.13 | 85th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WisconsinWIS | UCLAUCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3062nd | Own 2311th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.0 pts11th | +0.2 pts52nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4727th | 7183rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −5.733rd | +5.767th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | −0.8 pts12th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WIS +6.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.7, kicking −1.6, 4th downs +0.2. | +6.679th | −6.621st |
Season so far
Wisconsin5–3 · 11th-hardest schedule
L
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5Wvs Western Illinois36–9missed −43.5
W
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5W
at Penn State24–20covered +10
at Penn State24–20covered +10W
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5Lat UCLA7–17missed +1.5
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5W
vs USC24–7covered +2.5
vs USC24–7covered +2.5L
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5UCLA7–0 · 75th-hardest schedule
W
at California45–24covered −2.5
at California45–24covered −2.5W
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5
vs San Diego State28–10covered −13.5W
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5
vs Purdue52–38covered −13.5W
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5
at Maryland54–3covered −2.5W
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5
at Oregon17–15covered +10.5Wvs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5
vs Wisconsin17–7covered −1.5Wvs Michigan State28–10covered −16
vs Michigan State28–10covered −16Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is