Week 9 report · Sat, Oct 31 · 2026 Week 9
AP #25Wisconsin
5–3 · Ours #18 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–30FinalWe had WIS 19 – IOWA 21
Iowa
6–2 · Ours #23 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IOWA 54%IOWA won
IOWA 54%IOWA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IOWA −2.5.IOWA −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.6 · IOWA covered by 27.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 40.5.36.5final 30 · under by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WIS +3Lbeat the close by 0.5
WIS +3Lbeat the close by 0.5The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wisconsinoffense | Played like IOWA +22.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.6%▼9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.6%▲1.8 | 85th |
| 22nd | −0.14▼0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.02 | 78th |
| 40th | −0.03▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.05 | 60th |
| 12th | −0.27▼0.38 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.02 | 88th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
| Iowaoffense | defenseWisconsin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.3%▲3.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.3%▼8.3 | 37th |
| 79th | +0.28▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.40 | 21st |
| 94th | +0.69▲0.67 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.69▼0.82 | 6th |
| 47th | +0.01▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.01▼0.13 | 53rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WisconsinWIS | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2420th | Own 3166th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4929th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −18.510th | +18.590th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts24th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IOWA +3.0: field position +2.3, 4th downs +0.6. | −3.034th | +3.066th |
Season so far
Wisconsin5–3 · 11th-hardest schedule
L
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5Wvs Western Illinois36–9missed −43.5
W
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5W
at Penn State24–20covered +10
at Penn State24–20covered +10W
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5L
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5W
vs USC24–7covered +2.5
vs USC24–7covered +2.5Lat Iowa0–30missed +2.5
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5Iowa6–2 · 40th-hardest schedule
W
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31W
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5L
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5W
at Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3L
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-game
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-gameWvs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is