Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Wisconsin
5–3 · Ours #52 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–20FinalWe had WIS 16 – PSU 33
AP #13Penn State
3–4 · Ours #10 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.PSU 84%WIS won
PSU 84%WIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PSU −9.5.PSU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.9 · WIS covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.1.44final 44 · push
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Colton Joseph18/38 · 235 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3213th pct
- Comp %
- 47.4
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Rocco Becht12/29 · 114 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 41.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wisconsinoffense | Played like WIS +8.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePenn State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | 35.9%▼4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.9%▲2.3 | 72nd |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.08 | 76th |
| 16th | −0.32▼0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.06 | 84th |
| 71st | +0.19▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.15 | 29th |
| 4th | 3▼2.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.3 | 96th |
| Penn Stateoffense | defenseWisconsin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 26.6%▼16.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.6%▲12.5 | 92nd |
| 9th | −0.29▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.20 | 91st |
| 8th | −0.49▼0.77 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.49▲0.43 | 92nd |
| 30th | −0.10▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▼0.02 | 70th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WisconsinWIS | Penn StatePSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2951st | Own 3063rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts63rd | +0.8 pts73rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +16.187th | −16.113th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | −0.3 pts33rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PSU +10.7: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.6, kicking +0.2, 4th downs −1.1, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | −10.79th | +10.791st |
Season so far
Wisconsin5–3 · 11th-hardest schedule
L
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5Wvs Western Illinois36–9missed −43.5
W
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5Wat Penn State24–20covered +10
at Penn State24–20covered +10W
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5L
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5W
vs USC24–7covered +2.5
vs USC24–7covered +2.5L
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5Penn State3–4 · 63rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5
vs Marshall45–0covered −23.5W
at Temple27–9missed −24
at Temple27–9missed −24W
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40
vs Buffalo55–13covered −40Lvs Wisconsin20–24missed −10
vs Wisconsin20–24missed −10L
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5
at Northwestern13–34missed −2.5Lvs USC23–31missed +1
vs USC23–31missed +1L
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5
at Michigan18–21covered +5.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 4:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is