Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
West Virginia
5–3 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–27FinalWe had WVU 17 – UVA 33
AP #25Virginia
4–5 · Ours #29 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UVA 82%WVU won
UVA 82%WVU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UVA −9.5.UVA −10.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.7 · WVU covered by 21.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.5.51.5final 65 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UVA −9.5Lbeat the close by 1.0
UVA −9.5Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Michael Hawkins Jr.10/17 · 190 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4783rd pct
- Comp %
- 58.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Beau Pribula21/33 · 197 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 63.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| West Virginiaoffense | Played like WVU +6.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.2%▼0.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.2%▲0.4 | 53rd |
| 76th | +0.25▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.16 | 24th |
| 84th | +0.47▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.42 | 16th |
| 68th | +0.17▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.05 | 32nd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Virginiaoffense | defenseWest Virginia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▼4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲8.9 | 58th |
| 53rd | +0.07▲0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.21 | 47th |
| 44th | −0.01▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.49 | 56th |
| 65th | +0.14▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.05 | 36th |
| 79th | 0▲0.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| West VirginiaWVU | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 2950th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.1 pts51st | −2.3 pts8th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 7081st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.171st | −7.129th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | +0.7 pts88th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WVU +2.6: field position +0.8, kicking +1.7, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | +2.664th | −2.636th |
Season so far
West Virginia5–3 · 43rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
Wat Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3L
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5W
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5W
at TCU24–20covered +11
at TCU24–20covered +11Virginia4–5 · 39th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
Lvs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14L
at SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5L
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5
at Wake Forest7–51missed +13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is