Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas Tech

7–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.8
Rank
20
Résumé
9
Projected wins
9.0▼ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
16%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Abilene ChristianAbilene ChristianTTU −33.8TTU −44.5W 33–1059
Sat, Sep 129/12at Oregon StateORSTTTU −18.2TTU −25.5W 35–2458ORST · W
Fri, Sep 189/18HoustonHOUTTU −10.0TTU −9.5W 28–2650TTU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Sam HoustonSHSUTTU −29.2TTU −38.5W 49–1462SHSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at ColoradoCOLOTTU −14.0TTU −13.0W 29–751TTU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Arizona StateASUTTU −14.0TTU −14.5W 53–2578ASU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at CincinnatiCINTTU −9.4TTU −10.5L 24–3754CIN · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31ArizonaARIZTTU +1.3TTU −3.5W 34–26—ARIZ · L
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Oklahoma StateOKSTTTU −1.3TTU −15.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at BaylorBAYTTU −1.4—wk 12
Thu, Nov 2611/26TCUTCUTTU −6.9—wk 13

Model on TTU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.07–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 9.2
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins35%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game23%
Win conference9%
Make the CFP16%
First-round bye2%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 31% with a win vs Arizona, 3% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0494th
Success rate47.0%35th
Pass EPA+0.0481st
Rush EPA+0.0393rd
Explosive rate13.7%46th
Quality-drive rate59.0%19th
Points per quality drive4.164th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0820th
Success allowed38.9%38th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0925th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0725th
Explosive allowed12.8%89th
Havoc rate15.9%35th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.815th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +6.0
Field position margin+4.2 yd26th
Hidden points / game+8.7banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−0.8%59th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.820th
Schedule played+1.359th
Schedule remaining+5.645th
Full schedule+2.956th
Pregame expected wins4.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 20th · +10.8AP 13thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTTUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Texas Techoff +0.04 94thdef −0.08 allowed · 20th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.