Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs WVU · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Texas Tech
7–1 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.8
Rank
20
Résumé
9
Projected wins
9.0▼ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
16%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on TTU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–2 · home 2–1, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.07–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 9.2
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins35%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game23%
Win conference9%
Make the CFP16%
First-round bye2%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 31% with a win vs Arizona, 3% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0494th
Success rate47.0%35th
Pass EPA+0.0481st
Rush EPA+0.0393rd
Explosive rate13.7%46th
Quality-drive rate59.0%19th
Points per quality drive4.164th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0820th
Success allowed38.9%38th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0925th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0725th
Explosive allowed12.8%89th
Havoc rate15.9%35th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.815th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +6.0
Field position margin+4.2 yd26th
Hidden points / game+8.7banked
Luck, wins+1.06.0 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−0.8%59th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.820th
Schedule played+1.359th
Schedule remaining+5.645th
Full schedule+2.956th
Pregame expected wins4.9of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 20th · +10.8AP 13thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Texas Techoff +0.04 94thdef −0.08 allowed · 20th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Texas Techoff +0.04 94thdef −0.08 allowed · 20th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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