Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Houston

6–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+9.8
Rank
26
Résumé
13
Projected wins
9.1▲ 3.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
11%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Oregon StateORSTHOU −13.1HOU −20.5W 33–2063ORST · W
Sat, Sep 129/12SouthernSouthernHOU −38.4HOU −52.0W 77–699
Fri, Sep 189/18at Texas TechTTUHOU +10.0HOU +9.5L 26–2850TTU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Georgia SouthernGASOHOU −11.5HOU −20.5W 42–2847GASO · W
Sat, Oct 310/3UCFUCFHOU −8.5HOU −12.0W 27–1767UCF · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Kansas StateKSUHOU +1.4HOU +2.5W 35–1662HOU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Oklahoma StateOKSTHOU −12.2HOU −4.5W 35–3247HOU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at UtahUTAHHOU +8.3HOU +6.5L 13–2128UTAH · W
Sat, Nov 711/7CincinnatiCINHOU −12.5—wk 10
Fri, Nov 1311/13at ColoradoCOLOHOU −15.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at West VirginiaWVUHOU −12.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28BaylorBAYHOU −8.2—wk 13

Model on HOU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 4–0 · home 2–2, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.3 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.16–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins35%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 3.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP11%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2116th
Success rate51.5%3rd
Pass EPA+0.348th
Rush EPA+0.1051st
Explosive rate12.5%72nd
Quality-drive rate69.2%2nd
Points per quality drive4.351st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11100th
Success allowed44.0%103rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.15104th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0474th
Explosive allowed13.4%103rd
Havoc rate18.4%8th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.633rd
Turnover margin+714th · exp. +7.0
Field position margin+9.4 yd3rd
Hidden points / game+4.7banked
Luck, wins+0.65.4 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected0.0%51st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.826th
Schedule played+5.728th
Schedule remaining+2.660th
Full schedule+4.644th
Pregame expected wins3.7of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 26th · +9.8AP 18thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUHOUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Houstonoff +0.21 16thdef +0.11 allowed · 100th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.