Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs CIN · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Houston
6–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+9.8
Rank
26
Résumé
13
Projected wins
9.1▲ 3.0 vs preseason
CFP odds
11%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on HOU games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 4–0 · home 2–2, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.3 · closer than the market 4 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.16–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.1
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins35%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 3.1 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP11%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- Scoreboard watch: root for Mississippi State over Texas — swings a CFP bid between 10% and 15%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2116th
Success rate51.5%3rd
Pass EPA+0.348th
Rush EPA+0.1051st
Explosive rate12.5%72nd
Quality-drive rate69.2%2nd
Points per quality drive4.351st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11100th
Success allowed44.0%103rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.15104th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0474th
Explosive allowed13.4%103rd
Havoc rate18.4%8th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.633rd
Turnover margin+714th · exp. +7.0
Field position margin+9.4 yd3rd
Hidden points / game+4.7banked
Luck, wins+0.65.4 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected0.0%51st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.826th
Schedule played+5.728th
Schedule remaining+2.660th
Full schedule+4.644th
Pregame expected wins3.7of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 26th · +9.8AP 18thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Houstonoff +0.21 16thdef +0.11 allowed · 100th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Houstonoff +0.21 16thdef +0.11 allowed · 100th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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