Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Cincinnati
5–3 · Ours #62 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
42–45FinalWe had CIN 31 – WVU 29
West Virginia
5–3 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.CIN 56%WVU won
CIN 56%WVU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WVU −1.5.WVU −1.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.2 · WVU covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 60.3.63.5final 87 · over by 23.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CIN +2Lbeat the close by 0.5
CIN +2Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
JC French IV22/30 · 389 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8096th pct
- Comp %
- 73.3
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Michael Hawkins Jr.25/33 · 464 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8698th pct
- Comp %
- 75.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Cincinnatioffense | Played like CIN +4.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWest Virginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 53.6%▲13.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 53.6%▼6.9 | 14th |
| 95th | +0.49▲0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.29 | 5th |
| 96th | +0.80▲0.82 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.80▼0.45 | 4th |
| 77th | +0.23▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.15 | 23rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| West Virginiaoffense | defenseCincinnati | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64th | 45.6%▲4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.6%▼0.4 | 36th |
| 91st | +0.42▲0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.30 | 9th |
| 97th | +0.86▲0.84 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.86▼0.71 | 3rd |
| 50th | +0.04▼0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.05 | 50th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| CincinnatiCIN | West VirginiaWVU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2526th | Own 2311th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −1.1 pts21st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6978th | 7996th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +3.561st | −3.539th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.8 pts89th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CIN +0.9: field position +0.9, kicking +0.8, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | +0.954th | −0.946th |
Season so far
Cincinnati5–3 · 33rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Boston College34–15covered −7
vs Boston College34–15covered −7Wvs Western Carolina62–10covered −36
W
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5
vs Miami (OH)35–31missed −14.5W
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6
vs Kansas State31–26covered +6L
at Arizona7–34missed +7
at Arizona7–34missed +7Lat West Virginia42–45missed +1.5
at West Virginia42–45missed +1.5W
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5
vs Texas Tech37–24covered +11.5L
vs Utah25–49missed +7
vs Utah25–49missed +7West Virginia5–3 · 43rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3Lvs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5Wvs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5W
at TCU24–20covered +11
at TCU24–20covered +11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is