Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Coastal Carolina
3–5 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–31FinalWe had CCU 21 – WVU 31
West Virginia
5–3 · Ours #70 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WVU 72%WVU won
WVU 72%WVU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WVU −21.5.WVU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.8 · CCU covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.9.54.5final 55 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.CCU +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
CCU +21.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Deuce Bailey21/37 · 373 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1858th pct
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Michael Hawkins Jr.11/14 · 132 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4078th pct
- Comp %
- 78.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal Carolinaoffense | Played like WVU +1.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWest Virginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.6%▲2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.6%▲8.2 | 56th |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.17 | 43rd |
| 58th | +0.14▲0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.31 | 42nd |
| 47th | +0.02▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.02▲0.09 | 53rd |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| West Virginiaoffense | defenseCoastal Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.1%▼1.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▲8.3 | 53rd |
| 58th | +0.11▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▲0.08 | 42nd |
| 81st | +0.40▲0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.40▼0.19 | 19th |
| 49th | +0.03▼0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.14 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | West VirginiaWVU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2523rd | Own 3272nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts62nd | +0.7 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6466th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.369th | −6.331st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.1 pts60th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WVU +3.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.6, kicking +0.2, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −2.3. | −3.333rd | +3.367th |
Season so far
Coastal Carolina3–5 · 90th-hardest schedule
Lat West Virginia24–31covered +21
at West Virginia24–31covered +21Wvs Fordham45–7covered −36
L
at Delaware14–22missed +5
at Delaware14–22missed +5L
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5
vs Liberty17–34missed +2.5L
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2
vs Georgia Southern24–31missed +2W
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5
at Marshall27–21covered +4.5L
vs App State32–35missed +1.5
vs App State32–35missed +1.5W
at Georgia State31–20covered +4
at Georgia State31–20covered +4West Virginia5–3 · 43rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3L
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5W
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5W
at TCU24–20covered +11
at TCU24–20covered +11Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is