Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
West Virginia
5–3 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–20FinalWe had WVU 21 – TCU 33
TCU
4–4 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TCU 76%WVU won
TCU 76%WVU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TCU −7.TCU −11oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.6 · WVU covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.2.59final 44 · under by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.TCU −8.5Lbeat the close by 2.5
TCU −8.5Lbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Michael Hawkins Jr.7/15 · 79 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2616th pct
- Comp %
- 46.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jaden Craig33/47 · 372 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1454th pct
- Comp %
- 70.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| West Virginiaoffense | Played like TCU +4.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTCU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.9%▼4.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.9%▼2.0 | 65th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.16 | 50th |
| 25th | −0.20▼0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.01 | 75th |
| 66th | +0.16▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.20 | 34th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
| TCUoffense | defenseWest Virginia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62nd | 45.0%▲6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.0%▲3.1 | 38th |
| 56th | +0.09▲0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.09▲0.18 | 44th |
| 58th | +0.14▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.32 | 42nd |
| 45th | 0.00▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▲0.11 | 55th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| West VirginiaWVU | TCUTCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2310th | Own 2740th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.5 pts87th | −0.6 pts26th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 8096th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.652nd | −0.649th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.2 pts36th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WVU +4.2: turnovers +5.2, field position −1.6, kicking +1.5, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −1.5. | +4.270th | −4.230th |
Season so far
West Virginia5–3 · 43rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2L
at Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3L
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5W
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5Wat TCU24–20covered +11
at TCU24–20covered +11TCU4–4 · 38th-hardest schedule
L
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
W
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19L
at UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5L
vs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6W
at Baylor17–6covered +5
at Baylor17–6covered +5Lvs West Virginia20–24missed −11
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11W
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5
vs Kansas22–16missed −6.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is