Washington
4–3 · Ours #52Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
18–28Our projected score
Oregon
5–3 · Ours #27Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.ORE 74%
ORE 74%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.ORE −15.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.2 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −15.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.54.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 46.2 · first seen 54.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.WASH +15.5-108 DraftKings52% to cover · +0.4% EV
WASH +15.5-108 DraftKings52% to cover · +0.4% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Elijah BrownSophomore · 2 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.47
- Comp %
- 72.9
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Dylan RaiolaJunior · 3 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02106th
- Comp %
- 64.9
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Oregonoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseWashington | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | +0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.03 | 35th |
| 89th | 41.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.0% | 51st |
| 71st | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.03 | 68th |
| 105th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.08 | 17th |
| 39th | 13.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.8% | 44th |
| Washingtonoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.05 | 30th |
| 55th | 44.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.0% | 31st |
| 48th | +0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.10 | 21st |
| 126th | −0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 55th |
| 38th | 13.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.4% | 69th |
Team stats
| OregonORE | WashingtonWASH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +2.320th | 0.082nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.652nd | −2.4110th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 46%100th | 50%74th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4738th | 4.2853rd |
| Time of possession | 26:36115th | 28:4867th |
| Plays per game | 6938th | 6395th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | 0 | +4 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 15 | 9 – 13 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.9%31st | 17.1%19th |
Season so far
Washington4–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24W
vs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
L
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12L
at USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5L
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameW
at Purdue38–26covered +3
at Purdue38–26covered +3Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
Wat USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is