Week 1 report · Sun, Sep 6 · 2026 Week 1
Washington State
1–7 · Ours #58 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–24FinalWe had WSU 20 – WASH 34
AP #17Washington
4–3 · Ours #20 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WASH 78%WASH won
WASH 78%WASH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WASH −23.5.WASH −24oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.4 · WSU covered by 10
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.1.51.5final 34 · under by 17.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WSU +23.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
WSU +23.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Caden Pinnick16/25 · 142 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2815th pct
- Comp %
- 64.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Demond Williams Jr.23/34 · 263 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington Stateoffense | Played like WASH +7.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15th | 30.9%▼0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.9%▲11.4 | 85th |
| 29th | −0.08▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.07 | 71st |
| 19th | −0.28▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.28▲0.36 | 81st |
| 62nd | +0.12▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.23 | 38th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
| Washingtonoffense | defenseWashington State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65th | 46.0%▲4.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.0%▼4.7 | 35th |
| 38th | −0.02▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.11 | 62nd |
| 49th | +0.05▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.06 | 51st |
| 29th | −0.11▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.17 | 71st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washington StateWSU | WashingtonWASH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2418th | Own 3995th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −3.4 pts3rd | −1.2 pts20th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5540th | 6363rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −15.414th | +15.487th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.5 pts78th | −1.4 pts2nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WASH +11.3: turnovers +7.8, field position +5.2, kicking +1.6, 4th downs −2.5, penalty first downs −0.8. | −11.37th | +11.393rd |
Season so far
Washington State1–7 · 36th-hardest schedule
Lat Washington10–24covered +24
at Washington10–24covered +24L
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5
at Kansas State7–34missed +17.5Wvs Duquesne48–7covered −38.5
L
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5
vs Arizona24–34covered +10.5L
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2
vs Fresno State6–26missed −2L
at Utah State16–17covered +4
at Utah State16–17covered +4L
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5
at Oregon State30–48covered +18.5L
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5
vs Boise State10–31missed +14.5Washington4–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24Wvs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
L
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12L
at USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5L
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameW
at Purdue38–26covered +3
at Purdue38–26covered +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 6, 2:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is