Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Utah State
3–5 · Ours #125 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
14–16FinalWe had USU 12 – WASH 44
AP #19Washington
4–3 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WASH 98%WASH won
WASH 98%WASH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WASH −27.WASH −28oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −32.6 · USU covered by 26
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.7.55.5final 30 · under by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WASH −26.5Lbeat the close by 1.5
WASH −26.5Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Grady Brosterhous17/29 · 196 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1725th pct
- Comp %
- 58.6
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Demond Williams Jr.26/41 · 249 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1327th pct
- Comp %
- 63.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah Stateoffense | Played like WASH +6.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16th | 31.0%▼5.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.0%▲11.3 | 84th |
| 10th | −0.26▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.29 | 90th |
| 27th | −0.17▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.22 | 73rd |
| 7th | −0.38▼0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.38▲0.37 | 94th |
| 4th | 3▼2.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.8 | 96th |
| Washingtonoffense | defenseUtah State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47th | 41.1%▼1.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.1%▲0.5 | 53rd |
| 14th | −0.21▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.22 | 86th |
| 31st | −0.13▼0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.14 | 69th |
| 9th | −0.32▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.35 | 91st |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.8 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Utah StateUSU | WashingtonWASH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2849th | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | −0.2 pts27th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 7387th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.032nd | +6.068th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | −0.6 pts19th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WASH +7.9: turnovers +7.8, field position +0.3, kicking −0.2. | −7.917th | +7.984th |
Season so far
Utah State3–5 · 65th-hardest schedule
Lvs Idaho State17–29missed −15.5
Lat Washington14–16covered +28
at Washington14–16covered +28L
at Utah0–33missed +26.5
at Utah0–33missed +26.5W
vs Troy21–10covered −3
vs Troy21–10covered −3L
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5
at Boise State18–37covered +19.5W
vs Washington State17–16missed −4
vs Washington State17–16missed −4L
at Texas State17–20covered +14
at Texas State17–20covered +14W
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9
vs Colorado State31–14covered −9Washington4–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24Wvs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
L
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12L
at USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5L
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameW
at Purdue38–26covered +3
at Purdue38–26covered +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is