Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Minnesota
5–2 · Ours #66 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–24FinalWe had MINN 21 – WASH 29
Washington
4–3 · Ours #42 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WASH 71%MINN won
WASH 71%MINN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WASH −9.WASH −12oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.7 · MINN covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.9.46final 51 · over by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Drake Lindsey21/29 · 204 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2162nd pct
- Comp %
- 72.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Demond Williams Jr.17/27 · 234 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0138th pct
- Comp %
- 63.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Minnesotaoffense | Played like MINN +2.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWashington | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.3%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.3%▲0.2 | 57th |
| 39th | −0.02▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.01 | 61st |
| 55th | +0.11▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.12 | 45th |
| 25th | −0.14▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.09 | 75th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.6 | 59th |
| Washingtonoffense | defenseMinnesota | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.7%▼5.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.7%▲4.9 | 65th |
| 29th | −0.09▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.09▼0.01 | 72nd |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.16 | 64th |
| 29th | −0.11▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.14 | 72nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MinnesotaMINN | WashingtonWASH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3995th | Own 2312th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.8 pts91st | +0.5 pts62nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6260th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.638th | +3.662nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.9 pts91st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MINN +7.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.5, kicking +0.9, 4th downs −1.1. | +7.983rd | −7.917th |
Season so far
Minnesota5–2 · 59th-hardest schedule
Wvs Eastern Illinois59–7covered −42.5
L
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PK
vs Mississippi State13–38missed PKW
vs Akron41–7covered −23
vs Akron41–7covered −23Wat Washington27–24covered +12
at Washington27–24covered +12W
vs Michigan20–14covered +6
vs Michigan20–14covered +6L
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5
at Purdue13–41missed −2.5W
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5
vs Iowa13–10covered +7.5Washington4–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24W
vs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
Lvs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12L
at USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5Lvs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameWat Purdue38–26covered +3
at Purdue38–26covered +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is