Week 7 report · Fri, Oct 16 · 2026 Week 7
Washington
4–3 · Ours #60 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–26FinalWe had WASH 29 – PUR 26
Purdue
3–4 · Ours #66 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WASH 57%WASH won
WASH 57%WASH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at PUR −2.5.PUR −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.6 · WASH covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.5.50.5final 64 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WASH +3Wmatched the close
WASH +3Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Elijah Brown21/27 · 302 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3373rd pct
- Comp %
- 77.8
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Ryan Browne21/41 · 273 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0534th pct
- Comp %
- 51.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washingtonoffense | Played like WASH +15.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePurdue | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 51.7%▲11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.7%▼1.7 | 18th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.10 | 41st |
| 75th | +0.33▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.03 | 25th |
| 34th | −0.07▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.10 | 66th |
| 4th | 3▼2.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.4 | 96th |
| Purdueoffense | defenseWashington | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.8%▼12.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲8.0 | 78th |
| 20th | −0.16▼0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.17 | 80th |
| 34th | −0.09▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.13 | 66th |
| 11th | −0.29▼0.34 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.27 | 89th |
| 15th | 2▼1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WashingtonWASH | PurduePUR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2633rd | Own 3791st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts53rd | +1.2 pts81st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 6876th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +28.297th | −28.23rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.9 pts9th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. PUR +9.2: turnovers +5.2, field position +3.8, kicking +0.7, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | −9.213th | +9.287th |
Season so far
Washington4–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24W
vs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
L
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12L
at USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5L
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameWat Purdue38–26covered +3
at Purdue38–26covered +3Purdue3–4 · 4th-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
L
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3L
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5L
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5W
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5Wvs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5Lvs Washington26–38missed −3
vs Washington26–38missed −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 16, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is