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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Washington State

1–7 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−8.1
Rank
106
Résumé
131
Projected wins
2.4▼ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6at WashingtonWASHWSU +13.4WSU +23.5L 10–2446WSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12at Kansas StateKSUWSU +10.6WSU +17.5L 7–3426WSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19DuquesneDuquesneWSU −31.4WSU −38.5W 48–782
Sat, Sep 269/26ArizonaARIZWSU −0.7WSU +13.0L 24–3436WSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Fresno StateFRESWSU −0.5WSU −2.5L 6–2633FRES · W
Fri, Oct 910/9at Utah StateUSUWSU −0.8WSU +4.0L 16–1751WSU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Oregon StateORSTWSU +15.1WSU +18.0L 30–4849WSU · Push
Sat, Oct 2410/24Boise StateBOISWSU +9.3WSU +12.0L 10–3127WSU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at San Diego StateSDSUWSU +2.9WSU +2.5SDSU −2.5Pass
Sat, Nov 1411/14Colorado StateCSUWSU −12.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Texas StateTXSTWSU +11.3—wk 12

Model on WSU games: 4–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–0 · as the dog 4–2 · home 1–1, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +6.7 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.41–7 banked, 3 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.06126th
Success rate34.7%137th
Pass EPA−0.12125th
Rush EPA+0.0390th
Explosive rate7.2%138th
Quality-drive rate33.3%137th
Points per quality drive3.4108th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0680th
Success allowed41.0%62nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0677th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0682nd
Explosive allowed13.0%93rd
Havoc rate12.2%112th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.4112th
Turnover margin−7124th · exp. −7.0
Field position margin−8.0 yd137th
Hidden points / game−3.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.61.6 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−4.8%106th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.1106th
Schedule played+4.535th
Schedule remaining−6.9108th
Full schedule+1.165th
Pregame expected wins2.6of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 106th · −8.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Washington Stateoff −0.06 126thdef +0.06 allowed · 80th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.