LockSZNTeam
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs CSU · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Utah State

2–5 FBS · Pac-12 · this season
Rating
−4.5
Rank
92
Résumé
112
Projected wins
3.6▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Idaho StateIdaho StateUSU −29.1USU −15.5L 17–2949
Sat, Sep 129/12at WashingtonWASHUSU +32.6USU +26.5L 14–1648WASH · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at UtahUTAHUSU +33.5USU +27.5L 0–3316UTAH · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TroyTROYUSU PKUSU −2.5W 21–1064TROY · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Boise StateBOISUSU +19.0USU +20.5L 18–3738USU · W
Fri, Oct 910/9Washington StateWSUUSU +0.8USU −4.0W 17–1649WSU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Texas StateTXSTUSU +16.7USU +12.0L 17–2054TXST · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Colorado StateCSUUSU −9.2USU −9.5CSU +9.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7Fresno StateFRESUSU +4.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at San Diego StateSDSUUSU +5.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Oregon StateORSTUSU +15.3—wk 12

Model on USU games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–1 · home 1–2, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.62–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 3.5
Bowl (6+)2%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.11136th
Success rate35.1%135th
Pass EPA−0.12124th
Rush EPA−0.10129th
Explosive rate11.3%99th
Quality-drive rate47.5%90th
Points per quality drive2.4137th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0530th
Success allowed40.2%52nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0734th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0340th
Explosive allowed7.5%5th
Havoc rate11.3%124th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.8134th
Turnover margin−4109th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin+4.1 yd28th
Hidden points / game+0.5banked
Luck, wins−0.42.4 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−1.9%74th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.592nd
Schedule played+2.545th
Schedule remaining−3.378th
Full schedule+0.270th
Pregame expected wins2.2of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 92nd · −4.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Utah Stateoff −0.11 136thdef −0.05 allowed · 30th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.