Board · Fri, Nov 6 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
Virginia Tech
6–2 · Ours #47Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–30Our projected score
AP #19SMU
6–2 · Ours #44Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.SMU 62%
SMU 62%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.SMU −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.8 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −7.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.57.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 54.6 · first seen 57.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.VT +7.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.6% EV
VT +7.5-110 DraftKings51% to cover · -2.6% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Virginia Tech
No passer on record this season
Kevin JenningsSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.405th
- Comp %
- 72.2
- TD
- 18
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| SMUoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseVirginia Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | +0.20 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.06 | 82nd |
| 20th | 49.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.9% | 37th |
| 4th | +0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.11 | 93rd |
| 94th | +0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 53rd |
| 23rd | 14.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.5% | 106th |
| Virginia Techoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSMU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74th | +0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 52nd |
| 47th | 45.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 37.7% | 30th |
| 66th | +0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 47th |
| 87th | +0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 62nd |
| 67th | 12.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 62nd |
Team stats
| SMUSMU | Virginia TechVT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.184th | +2.812th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +7.68th | +1.259th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 69%2nd | 52%61st |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0071st | 4.4834th |
| Time of possession | 28:2484th | 31:2423rd |
| Plays per game | 6845th | 7214th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −5 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 7 | 8 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.9%29th | 19.8%5th |
Season so far
Virginia Tech6–2 · 100th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5W
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5W
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10W
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5W
at Clemson20–16covered +3
at Clemson20–16covered +3SMU6–2 · 76th-hardest schedule
W
at Florida State27–24push −3
at Florida State27–24push −3Wvs UC Davis56–10covered −32
L
at Louisville31–41missed +3
at Louisville31–41missed +3W
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5
vs Missouri State34–24missed −30.5Wvs Boston College25–16missed −21.5
vs Boston College25–16missed −21.5W
vs Virginia23–13push −10
vs Virginia23–13push −10Wvs California59–20covered −19
vs California59–20covered −19L
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5
at Syracuse27–30missed −9.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is