Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Virginia Tech
6–2 · Ours #42 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
35–26FinalWe had VT 24 – MD 30
Maryland
2–6 · Ours #39 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MD 64%VT won
MD 64%VT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at VT −3.VT −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +5.8 · VT covered by 6.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.6.53.5final 61 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MD +3Lbeat the close by 0.5
MD +3Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Ethan Grunkemeyer31/39 · 314 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5086th pct
- Comp %
- 79.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Malik Washington30/43 · 359 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4381st pct
- Comp %
- 69.8
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia Techoffense | Played like VT +1.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMaryland | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 52.0%▲10.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.0%▼7.8 | 18th |
| 86th | +0.34▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.25 | 15th |
| 86th | +0.50▲0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.54 | 14th |
| 68th | +0.17▲0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▲0.07 | 33rd |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Marylandoffense | defenseVirginia Tech | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.2%▲14.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼11.5 | 24th |
| 81st | +0.30▲0.41 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.30▼0.27 | 19th |
| 82nd | +0.41▲0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.42 | 18th |
| 49th | +0.04▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.02 | 51st |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.5 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Virginia TechVT | MarylandMD | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2952nd | Own 2521st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.748th | +0.752nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.6 pts82nd | −0.4 pts29th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. VT +3.5: field position +1.4, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | +3.568th | −3.533rd |
Season so far
Virginia Tech6–2 · 100th-hardest schedule
Wvs VMI73–3covered −54.5
W
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5
vs Old Dominion44–21covered −19.5Wat Maryland35–26covered −2.5
at Maryland35–26covered −2.5W
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5
at Boston College21–14missed −14.5L
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2
vs Pittsburgh33–35missed −2L
at California20–25missed −10
at California20–25missed −10W
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5
vs Georgia Tech34–24covered −8.5W
at Clemson20–16covered +3
at Clemson20–16covered +3Maryland2–6 · 22nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Hampton62–0covered −45.5
W
at UConn38–14covered −11.5
at UConn38–14covered −11.5Lvs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5
vs Virginia Tech26–35missed +2.5L
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5
vs UCLA3–54missed +2.5L
at Nebraska23–48missed +15
at Nebraska23–48missed +15L
at Ohio State16–45covered +31
at Ohio State16–45covered +31L
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6
vs Rutgers30–37missed −6L
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5
vs Illinois17–20missed +2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is